Market Insight
by Liz Ann Sonders
December 11, 2019
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as expected; while signaling rates would stay in their current range through next year.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
December 09, 2019
Jeffrey Kleintop’s full 2020 outlook for global stocks and the economy.
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
December 09, 2019
Competing positive and negative factors are keeping the picture balanced, but what could tip the scale one way or the other?
by Liz Ann Sonders
December 09, 2019
The U.S. economy likely will remain split in early 2020.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
December 09, 2019
Unless global growth reaccelerates, international stocks may remain stuck within the volatile ranges seen during the past two years.
by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop, Kevin Gordon
December 06, 2019
The past two months’ lack of meaningful trade news lifted U.S. stocks to all-time highs, but recent choppiness reflects ongoing trade uncertainty.
by Liz Ann Sonders
December 02, 2019
Market valuation is always a factor; but often misunderstood is the vastness of the spectrum of metrics, and the sentiment nature of valuation.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
November 25, 2019
As we head into 2020, investors should be cautious in assuming that the return of central bank balance sheet growth means stocks will follow along.
by Liz Ann Sonders
November 18, 2019
U.S. stocks have broken out of their post-January 2018 trading range and it’s worth a look at sentiment and whether elevated optimism represents a near-term risk.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
November 11, 2019
A wide range of outcomes from -10% to +40% may lie ahead of emerging market stocks depending on the timing and details of a trade deal.
by Liz Ann Sonders
November 04, 2019
Last week’s key releases of job growth and ISM manufacturing data highlight the ongoing bifurcation in the economy; with the consumer bucking manufacturing’s malaise.
by Liz Ann Sonders
October 30, 2019
As expected, the FOMC lowered the fed funds rate (and the IOER) by 25 basis points; with a slightly more hawkish tone in the accompanying statement.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
October 28, 2019
The last global economic cycle ended with a housing bust; will the bust in auto sales end this cycle?
by Liz Ann Sonders
October 21, 2019
We may be at a moment of truth of sorts for both profits and leading economic indicators as they relate to where we are in the economic cycle.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
October 14, 2019
Fortunately, stocks are nowhere near that overvalued, based on the price-to-earnings ratio. But, if we take a more refined look at historical stock market valuations at peaks and lows, we find some cause for concern.
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
October 02, 2019
U.S. stocks plunged Wednesday, as weak economic data rattled investors. Here’s what you should know.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
September 30, 2019
After monetary policymakers took action to lower interest rates and ease financial conditions, they have been asking for fiscal policymakers to enact stimulus though stepped-up government spending and tax cuts—they may be starting to get their wish.
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
September 23, 2019
The Schwab Center for Financial Research’s theme for 2019 was “be prepared,” and that still holds true. Here’s what we expect to see for the remainder of the year.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
September 16, 2019
We see five main options for Brexit in the coming months; three result in a near-term resolution while two options result in a further delay or “no deal” Brexit.
by Liz Ann Sonders
September 09, 2019
Stocks recently broke out of their short-term range on “good” trade news; but trying to trade around trade-related news has been a treacherous exercise.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
September 03, 2019
If Japan represents what the debt and demographic future looks like for many countries, then the future for investors in a world of negative bond yields may lead to more stock market exposure.
by Liz Ann Sonders
August 26, 2019
Economic uncertainty has spiked given the escalating U.S.-China trade war; with increasing risk it weakens the dividing line between the manufacturing and consumer sectors.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
August 19, 2019
If rate cuts aren’t seen as enough to address slowing growth and policymakers turn to direct currency intervention, the resulting currency war could be bad news for investors.
by Liz Ann Sonders
August 15, 2019
Why doing nothing may be the better response to market volatility.
by Liz Ann Sonders
August 12, 2019
Current economic conditions do not look recessionary, but risks are rising and if we’re heading into one, it’s possible it already started.
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
August 07, 2019
Market volatility can make anyone nervous. Here’s what investors should know about dealing with it.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
August 05, 2019
Another round of trade tariffs is an additional hit to manufacturing, potentially deepening the global slowdown into a recession, despite the efforts of the Fed and other central banks.
by Liz Ann Sonders
July 29, 2019
The national debt and deficits remain at worrisome levels, spawning questions of how economic growth will be affected and whether we will hit another wall.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
July 22, 2019
Economic indicators don’t have to be complicated to work. We look at four alternative indicators for the main driver of the global economy and assess how interest rate cuts might impact them.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
July 08, 2019
Valuations suggest international stocks may produce above average, double-digit annualized total returns over the next 10 years, in contrast to below average, mid-single digit returns for U.S. stocks.
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
June 26, 2019
Recession risk is rising, but markets expect central banks to keep it at bay by cutting short-term interest rates. Will it be enough to keep the stock market rally going?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
June 24, 2019
We highlight the risks that threaten a vulnerable global economy and the investment opportunities that may surprise unprepared investors.
by Liz Ann Sonders
June 20, 2019
Myriad economic, market and policy battles are raging today; providing some color, but lots of gray area as we look ahead to the second half of the year.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
June 10, 2019
U.S. imports from China have plunged this year, offset by import gains for other emerging markets not subject to U.S. tariffs.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
May 28, 2019
History suggests that the stock market rally since the last Fed rate hike on December 19, 2018 may be on borrowed time.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
May 13, 2019
Recent developments have caused markets to focus on geopolitical risk, with more to come in the month of May.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
April 29, 2019
Stock markets around the world have posted steady double-digit gains this year on a rebound of valuations. However, volatility may return without support from earnings growth.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
April 15, 2019
The movements of the world stock markets are less correlated with each other than they have been in the past 20 years.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
April 01, 2019
Reversals in the long-term relative performance of growth and value stocks, large and small cap stocks, and U.S. and international stocks have been marked by yield curve inversions.
by Liz Ann Sonders
March 25, 2019
The inversion of the 10y-3m yield curve unleashed a sharp pullback in stocks; but the Fed’s “preferred” curve first inverted in early January.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
March 18, 2019
The stock market impact of the U.K. crashing out of the EU with no plan would probably be significantly negative, but if the disorderly “no deal” Brexit scenario is avoided the chances seem to favor a partial rebound in U.K. stocks and the British pound.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
March 04, 2019
This year’s rally in Chinese and EM stocks could become vulnerable in the coming months as optimism over a trade deal leads to disappointment over its actual economic and earnings effect.
by Liz Ann Sonders
February 25, 2019
Recessions are inevitable; what we don’t know is the length of runway between now and the next one. But we can look at history as a guide.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
February 19, 2019
The divergence in the assessment of the outlook reflected in the stock and bond markets may be decided by the ongoing convergence in earnings growth expectations across regions.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
February 04, 2019
As investors ponder what this year may hold in store for the markets, the inter-relationships between politics, economics, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and corporate actions can seem very complex. Investors may feel overwhelmed and seek a simple answer. When people feel there is a situation that is out of their control or is too complicated to analyze, they often fall back on rules of thumb to make decisions.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
January 22, 2019
After last year’s U.S. tax cuts contributed to better growth and market performance, a number of major countries are looking to reverse the declines in growth and voter satisfaction with tax cuts in 2019.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
January 07, 2019
In recent months, stock market participants have been focusing on downside risks in 2019, but not all risks are to the downside.
by Liz Ann Sonders
December 17, 2018
Can the U.S. economy make it to next July, when it would become the longest expansion in the post-WWII era? Let’s take a look.
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
December 14, 2018
What does a market correction mean, what’s likely to happen next and what can investors do now?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
December 10, 2018
Global growth is likely to slow in 2019 as the economic cycle nears a peak. International stocks may continue to see heightened volatility and could enter a bear market if key indicators continue on their current path.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
November 12, 2018
Economic growth for many of the world’s biggest economies is expected to slow in 2019, yet China appears to be the only one planning on implementing economic stimulus. While a bounce from China’s stimulus is possible, we believe global growth is likely to slow as the economic cycle nears a peak, leaving investors to consider reducing volatility by trimming the more volatile asset classes such as emerging market stocks.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
October 29, 2018
Recent stock market behavior and our belief in heightened risk of a peak in the global economic cycle in the next 6-18 months, makes it a good time to consider what has happened to stocks in a typical recession and bear market.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
October 15, 2018
Recent market volatility has made some investors wonder if the economic cycle is ending and stocks are at the start of a prolonged decline. One indicator we are watching for signs of the potential for a recession and a deeper and prolonged decline in stocks is the gap between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. This indicator suggests that the risks are rising.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
September 17, 2018
EM stocks are prone to high volatility, as we have experienced this year. We will be watching the signs closely to see if this is typical volatility or something leading to a deeper and more prolonged downturn.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
August 20, 2018
There are some reasons to think that the probability of a repeat of a past crisis has eased. The changes we have seen should help reduce the vulnerability of the global system to shocks like those of the past. Of course, risk has not been entirely eliminated from the system.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
August 06, 2018
What Does GDP Mean For The Stock Market?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
May 14, 2018
A shark attack could take a big bite out of unprepared investors’ portfolios who don’t rebalance.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
March 19, 2018
As the NCAA basketball tournament gets down to the Sweet Sixteen, it is a good time to reflect on sixteen competing drivers of the markets that may make for an exciting showdown in the weeks and months to come.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
February 20, 2018
The worst of the current global stock market correction may be over, but it is unlikely to be the last one this year. Unfortunately, there are a lot of misconceptions about what signals the end of a correction.
by Jeffrey Kleintop
February 05, 2018
Stocks Fall: Why Now, What’s Next?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
January 22, 2018
Expecting the Unexpected: Is a Demographic Disaster Looming?
by Jeffrey Kleintop
November 27, 2017
History indicates stocks could have further to run.
by Schwab Center for Financial Research
June 20, 2014
Investors can diversify and participate in the long-term growth of markets by including index funds in their portfolios.