Tech Struggles Persist, Disney Falls as D.C. Opens

Published as of: November 13, 2025, 9:13 a.m. ET

(Thursday market open) As the lights turned back on in D.C., investors pondered results from Walt Disney (DIS) and Cisco (CSCO) and major indexes slipped amid rising volatility and yields. This week has seen a rotation out of big tech names into less highly valued sectors like health care, materials and financials, a trend that continued this morning with several Magnificent Seven stocks starting on their back feet, including Nvidia (NVDA).

Investors might have to wait until next week to see a trickle of government data, which won't come until the official reopening and may be less than complete. The September jobs report could be an exception since it was collected before the shutdown. "Economists think that it will be the end of 2025 or early 2026 before they start to feel confident again in government data, given the 43-day gap in collecting and analyzing information on jobs, inflation, and other key metrics," said Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab. "Upcoming reports, if they come out at all, are likely to be based on estimates or partial information, producing a cloudy picture of the economy."

Rate cut odds for December sank to 55% today, down from 65% earlier this week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, after Boston Fed President Susan Collins  became the latest policy maker to sound skeptical. Despite that and worries about the shutdown's impact on fourth quarter growth, major indexes mostly rose Wednesday. The S&P 500 index managed a fourth consecutive gain and the Dow Jones Industrial Average maintained momentum to top 48,000 for the first time, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq kept sliding.

1. Holiday shopping demand in focus as retailers line up: Consumer sentiment is near its lowest level in years, an auspicious time for Walt Disney's quarterly results. Earnings season picks up on the consumer side next week as major retailers like Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and Target (TGT) report, but the soft sentiment raises concerns about holiday spending. However, the National Retail Federation said last week it expects retail sales this month and next to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over a year ago, reaching $1 trillion for the first time. Consumers are cautious, the federation said, but fundamentally strong. One thing to remember is that what is true for one of the big retailers may not be for the others because of product and customer diversity. There's been a lot of talk about a "k-shaped" economy favoring higher-income consumers. That may be positive for both the discount retailers and those catering to upper-end shoppers. 
    
2. Old timer takes index lead: The venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average just had its best three-day stretch since July and is now outpacing its major index brethren over the last three months with a gain of more than 7%. However, the $DJI has just 30 components, far from representative. While it has more exposure to financials and industrials and less to technology than the wider S&P 500 index, it's also price-weighted, meaning stocks with the highest prices have the most influence. The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, meaning its largest components swing more weight. For investors seeking an index with more exposure to sectors outside of tech and some international flavor but less dependency on the daily mood swings of AI-focused investors, the S&P 500 Equal Weight index (SPXEW) might be a better representation of how stocks are doing, weighing all components equally. It's up 3% since mid-August, well behind 6% for the S&P 500 and 6.6% for the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100^® (NDX). Things changed starting this month, perhaps signifying a shift away from technology and into a broader sector mix. Since late October, the S&P 500 has barely moved and the Nasdaq-100 is down 1.3%, but the SPXEW is up 1.1%.
    
3. Rotation shift out of tech continues: Five of seven Magnificent Seven stocks fell yesterday, as only Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) escaped the downturn. But advancing shares outnumbered decliners on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), possibly as investors shifted from perceived high valuations in tech toward sectors like staples, materials, and health care. This came despite news yesterday that Anthropic plans to invest $50 billion in U.S. data centers. News like this appears to be less constructive for the chip and cloud sectors than it was a month ago, at least regarding stock market performance. Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO) headed lower early today despite several price target hikes from analysts and a Wall Street Journal article today reporting that advanced AI chips, including some of Nvidia's, are being used in China despite U.S. export restrictions. The newspaper's investigation found no evidence any deals across several countries that got the chips to China violated U.S. law.

• Cisco (CSCO) climbed more than 7% early today as the company narrowly edged above consensus views for both earnings per share and revenue. Guidance also topped Wall Street's thinking. Several analysts raised their price targets on the company, noting networking products strength and firm momentum in its AI business.
   
• Disney sank 4% ahead of the open after the company missed analysts' quarterly revenue estimates. Earnings per share managed to beat consensus, but operating income for the entertainment segment fell 35% as Disney's TV and movie businesses suffered. Streaming and theme parks were both solid, re-emphasizing what analysts have said about these divisions leading future growth, Barron's reported. In a CNBC appearance this morning, CEO Hugh Johnston emphasized 12.5 million new subscribers, strong cruise ship and theme park bookings, and healthy consumer demand.
   
• Nike (NKE) ran up 2.8% gains ahead of the open after getting an upgrade to Overweight from Wells Fargo. The old rating was Equal Weight. The firm says visibility into Nike's sales and margins "is finally improving." The company has been in a negative estimate revision cycle for three years, but this will reverse over the next six to nine months, the analyst told investors.
   
• Firefly Aerospace (FLY) catapulted 24% this morning after the firm reported revenue and profit growth.
   
• DollarTree (DLTR) dropped 3% ahead of the open, hurt by Goldman Sachs' downgrade of shares to Sell from Buy. Goldman cited concerns around the lower income consumer, a declining consumer perception on price and value, and a preference for other discounters with improving value propositions.
   
• Applied Materials (AMAT), which reports after the close today, fell nearly 1% ahead of the open. The chip equipment manufacturer's guidance back in August disappointed investors, but it was based in part on macroeconomic pressures. Demand from China is worth watching.
   
• Though a 10-year Treasury note auction saw lackluster demand Wednesday, Treasury yields mostly fell after the market closure for Veteran's Day, hurt by ideas that fourth quarter U.S. growth might be slowed by the government shutdown. The benchmark 10-year yield dipped four basis points to 4.07%, the lowest close since October 29, before inching up two basis points today. That said, yields have traded in a very narrow range over the last two months between roughly 4% and 4.15% for the 10-year.
   
• Bitcoin (/BTC) added 1.6% early Thursday and shares of crypto-related stocks including CoinBase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) both climbed less than 1%. This came despite slightly higher stock market volatility and this week's drop in tech stock values, both of which suggest investors are slightly risk averse. Crypto trading has been volatile lately, with mixed performance from different tokens.
   
• VIX rose this morning as some investors worried things could get choppy in coming days as government data starts filtering in.

Market momentum and breadth both look healthier now than earlier this month. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages ($SPXA50R—candlestick) rose to 51.2% by the end of Wednesday, up from 34% earlier this month. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, (bottom chart) is 55.25, up from around 40 in early November. That's well below the overbought level that typically kicks in near 70.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

November 14: October PPI and core PPI, October retail sales.
November 17: No major earnings or data expected.
November 18: Expected earnings from Home Depot (HD), Medtronic (MDT), and Baidu (BIDU).
November 19: October housing starts and building permits and expected earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW), and TJX Companies (TJX).
November 20: October existing home sales, October leading indicators, and expected earnings from Walmart (WMT), Macy's (M), Intuit (INTU), and Gap (GAP).