Looking to the Futures

After rallying to new highs to start the month of October, bitcoin has since changed course and fell into negative territory year-to-date for the first time since a period of consolidation along the 95270 level from April 25th to May 7th.  On October 6th, November Bitcoin (/BTCX25) reached a high of 127240, before giving up all its gains for the year. Friday, November 14th, the product finished below the flat mark for the year and as of Tuesday's November 18th settlement price of 92925 is down 6.32% year.

 
November Bitcoin futures (/BTCX25) this morning (as of 8 A.M. E.T.) are trading 91795 or down 1.22% leading into the trading day. Spot Bitcoin is slightly lower trading $91770.90. Overnight, Bitcoin managed to hold the 90000 marks after having a positive day in the market on Tuesday. Investors are keeping a close eye on inflows and outflows in Bitcoin ETF's amid selling pressure from a broader market selloff. December Nasdaq 100 Index futures have retreated roughly 7% from all-time highs from October 30th. Institutional interest is much more prevalent now in Bitcoin amongst the growing number of spot ETF's, treasury allocations, are corporate purchasing. Supply and demand is going to be closely monitored as investors seek to find support and indicators for a possible reversal. As the markets feel the impact of outflows reported in crypto ETF's, investors will be taking note of the larger institutional buyer jumping back into crypto products.

Investors are no longer flying blind when it comes to macroeconomic data. With the government's shutdown ending, access to economic reports such as the Consumer Price Index and Weekly Jobs Reports that were delayed will now be available to the Fed. Currently the CME FedWatch shows 50.9% probability of a 25-point rate cut. Hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell has lifted the Dollar Index and has sent investors seeking safe havens which will weigh on investor sentiment for riskier assets and may cause a period where traders are looking to de-risk. The ICE US Dollar Index ($DXY) is currently trading at 99.758 and has been trending higher since hitting a low of 96.218, September 17th. The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, 2025, with the interest rate announcement taking place on December 10th.
 

Continuous Bitcoin futures (/BTC) breached the 200 simple moving average (SMA) on November 4th and have been in a steady decline since October 6th. The steep decline of nearly 30% has left traders seeking a support level near 90000 Bitcoin opened trading for the year at 95270 and has dipped below that point for the first time since May 7th after forming a consolidation pattern and breaking out throughout the month of May. Bitcoin futures have slipped below this mark as it tries to find traction for a reversal. The 9-day SMA, 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) show a strong negative trend. 

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) shows Bitcoin futures nearing the oversold level, currently sitting at 31.6413. Since October 6th the trend has strengthened as the future continued to sell off. 
 

9-Day SMA                      98244

21-Day EMA                    102347

50-Day SMA                    110791

200-Day SMA                  104053

14-Day RSI                      32.0291%

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