Early Gains Linger Even as Wholesale Prices Surge
June 11, 2026
Producer Price Index data is surging at the fastest rate in nearly four years as PPI beat estimates. As ongoing threats intensified in the Middle East, crude prices wavered.
Published as of: June 11, 2026, 9:19 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 7,266.99 | -119.66 | -1.62% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 49,918.78 | -953.33 | -1.87% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 25,169.50 | -509.32 | -1.98% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.53% | -0.01 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 100.08 | +0.13 | +0.13% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 21.29 | -0.93 | -4.19% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $90.59 | +$0.56 | +0.64% |
| Bitcoin | $62,965 | +$935 | +1.51% |
(Thursday market open) U.S. wholesale prices surged in May, in some ways more aggressively than Wall Street had expected, though major indexes kept earlier gains after the Producer Price Index data. Headline PPI climbed 1.1% and core—excluding food and energy—rose 0.4%. Consensus was for 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively. Annual PPI also topped Wall Street's thinking at 6.5%. Consensus was 6.4%. All told, wholesale prices are now rising at their fastest pace since late 2022.
Beyond PPI, investors grappled today with intensified conflict in the Persian Gulf and new threats from both sides, though crude prices initially retreated along with yields as the U.S. said it was done with the latest round of strikes. Oil bounced back after President Trump, in a post, threatened Iran's Kharg Island. Additionally, the SpaceX initial public offering is expected tomorrow and may generate market volatility. Investors should remember that newly issued stocks come with risks and can be unpredictable.
The S&P 500 Index briefly turned positive early Wednesday before reversing to close near the low for the day, losing 1.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 2% as the market's June swoon continued. Tomorrow brings a look at preliminary June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. This metric has hit a series of all-time lows in recent months, but consensus expects a rebound to 46.0, from 44.8 last month.
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Three things to watch
- PPI deeper dive: Annual May core PPI was 4.9%, below analysts' average estimate of 5.4%. More concerning, components of PPI that map over to the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price report—the Federal Reserve's favored inflation meter—suggest a firm print. Only the air transport component declined. A deeper look at PPI excluding food, energy, and trade showed a 0.8% monthly increase in May. "In the history of this series, there have only been three months with stronger gains," said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). Though the futures market still sees no chance of rate move next week by the Fed, chances of a hike at some point this year remain near 70%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The October meeting now appears in play with nearly 50% odds of an increase. All this could weigh on earnings hopes, which helped drive the market's fierce spring rally.
- Fed meeting looms after ECB/BOJ: The Fed now arguably has all the data it needs on inflation and jobs before next week's rate decision, where it's not expected to change policy. It is expected to issue its economic and rate projections, though investors might want to listen to plans for those items when new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh takes the podium. He's hinted that these types of Fed communications aren't necessarily useful and may pare them. The press conference itself can't even be taken for granted, as Warsh may not want to address the media after every meeting. Before the Fed meets, policymakers got word from the European Central Bank (ECB), which raised rates early today in an expected inflation-fighting move. "A string of hikes seems unlikely because downside risks to growth are greater than in 2022," said Michelle Gibley, director of international equity research and strategy at SCFR. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets next week and is widely expected to hike.
- Stepping back to check big picture: Recent Wall Street softness reflects several factors, including a lack of near-term tech earnings catalysts after Oracle (ORCL), the spike in Treasury yields, and possibly some liquidation of tech to raise capital for coming initial public offerings (IPO). Additionally, there may be some concern about economic growth amid worries about potential rate hikes later this year, actual rate hikes in Europe and perhaps Japan, and the fact that yesterday's Consumer Price Index data confirmed inflation is growing more quickly than wages. This dynamic, if it lasts, can hurt consumer purchasing power and ultimately drag on gross domestic product (GDP). "The lack of progress in peace talks with Iran is just another overhang on sentiment," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at SCFR. "The fundamental story is still intact, and it's still an AI driven and capex backed market, but that doesn't mean you can't get a 5% to 10% pullback." Though earnings catalysts do retreat after Oracle, this afternoon features Adobe (ADBE), shares of which plunged double digits last time it reported on what appeared to be hopes for better guidance.
Crypto currents
Crypto world looks for answers: Another bitcoin sell-off, another round of handwringing in the world of crypto. What's to blame? The AI trade sucking up capital? Surging inflation and possibly higher interest rates? Digital asset treasury company Strategy's small but symbolic sale of bitcoin? Perhaps all of the above. Or maybe it was just a normal test of a previous low in what is still a relatively young bear market, as bitcoin goes. Flows data also tells a story. Net outflows from spot bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETP) totaled $5.4 billion over the past four weeks, the most since spot ETPs launched in early 2024, according to Glassnode data. But bitcoin's recent decline also coincided with a steep drop in net accumulation by long-term holders, whose holdings have an average purchase date of more than 155 days. That cohort had been on a buying spree since March 1, helping drive price about 25% higher over two months. But their net buying fell off a cliff last week, dropping by more than half as bitcoin's price fell 17% over just five days last week. On Friday, it totaled just about a quarter of the daily average over the previous three months.
On the move
- Oracle plunged nearly 10% early Thursday, the latest major tech firm to disappoint investors despite earnings that beat expectations. Cloud and software revenue fell a bit short of estimates, and the company plans to raise an additional $20 billion in equity and debt to pay for its AI buildout. However, some Wall Street firms raised their price targets on the stock.
- Intel (INTC) surged more than 4.5% in early trading after getting an upgrade to buy from underperform from Bank of America. The analyst cited higher confidence in Intel's opportunity to help address industry constraints in leading edge wafers and packaging as well as supply into a much larger agentic CPU market.
- Applied Materials (AMAT) rose another 4% early today after a strong finish yesterday. The semiconductor company said in a press release Wednesday that it's expanding its Singapore manufacturing to support AI chip demand. It also got a lift from Oracle's spending plans, which also appeared to help other chip equipment stocks this morning.
- A handful of tech stocks under recent pressure rebounded early Thursday, including Marvell Technology (MRVL) and SanDisk (SNDK). Recent comebacks in the sector haven't lasted long, and S&P 500 tech stocks are down nearly 10% over the last five sessions and 1.7% over the last month.
- Shares of space companies lifted off this morning ahead of tomorrow's IPO, including a 3% gain for Intuitive Machines (LUNR) and a 2% ascent for Rocket Lab (RKLB).
- Treasury note yields fell slightly this morning after a 10-year Treasury note auction Wednesday drew above-average demand.
- Technically, any move lower today could quickly test support at the 50-day moving average of 7,213 for the S&P 500 Index. It's been two months since the index traded below its 50-day moving average.
- The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) eased slightly this morning after closing at two-month highs above 22 yesterday. The futures curve is in contango but relatively flat, with contracts later this year mostly at 22 or just above, suggesting investors expect a more uncertain environment.
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Chart of the day
Data sources: CME Group. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Crude oil futures (/CL—candlesticks) have been forming a wedge pattern (white trendlines) since early April. Price is currently below the 50-day moving average (red line) but appears to have found support. There's a slight bullish divergence in the RSI (lower pane), which made a higher low as the price made an equal low.
The week ahead
June 12: University of Michigan June preliminary consumer sentiment.
June 15: May industrial production.
June 16: Start of FOMC meeting, May housing starts and building permits.
June 17: FOMC rate decision and expected earnings from Carmax (KMX).
June 18: Expected earnings from Accenture (ACN) and Kroger (KR).