Stocks Climb as April Jobs Growth Tops Estimates

Published as of: May 8, 2026, 9:18 a.m. ET

(Friday market open) For the second straight month, U.S. jobs growth surpassed Wall Street's expectations in April at 115,000, while unemployment stayed at 4.3%, meeting consensus. Major indexes, already higher before the data, held their gains while Treasury yields remained slightly lower. Analysts had expected job growth of just 60,000, but large jumps in healthcare and transportation and warehousing positions lifted the total and made March and April the first back-to-back reports with six-figure employment growth since late 2024.

War news could remain front and center heading into the weekend once the market digests jobs data, especially as oil inched up after reports of new skirmishes between Iran and the U.S., which President Trump dismissed as unimportant. As the earnings flow eases next week, geopolitics could push its way back onto the top of investors' list. That said, U.S. inflation and retail sales reports in coming days could keep data in focus, too.

Rising Treasury yields and crude, along with uncertainty about peace negotiations as the U.S. awaits Iran's response to its latest proposal, ganged up on major indexes Thursday and paused the rally. Still, Wall Street remains on pace for sharp weekly gains. With the S&P 500 Index up more than 15% since its March 30 low and near record highs, Thursday's setback wasn't all that surprising. Despite the turn lower, 16 S&P 500 stocks hit all-time highs Thursday, including Caterpillar (CAT) and Alphabet (GOOGL), CNBC noted. Nine fell to 52-week lows.

1. Deeper dive on jobs report: Looking beyond headlines, bulls might have a few quibbles about today's jobs data. First, the report reduced jobs growth for February and March combined by 16,000. Also, average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% monthly, a relatively light gain and the same low growth as seen in March. Labor force participation slipped to 61.8% in April from 61.9% in March and 62.5% a year ago. Lower participation can mean more people giving up looking for jobs, a sign of weakness in the economy. "The total number of individuals in the labor force dipped again in April and has been rolling over since November," noted Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). He added that the number of people working part-time for economic reasons has also been rebounding. Light wage growth—combined with the low "quits" rate seen in Tuesday's March job openings report—suggest the "low hire, low fire" climate continued in April. Also, an April decline of 13,000 jobs in the information category could reflect AI competition.
    
2. Jobs and the Fed: No single jobs report likely affects Federal Reserve rate policy, especially judging from recent hawkish noise from policymakers. It would likely take several months of consistently poor jobs growth to nudge the Fed from what seems its bias toward keeping rates on hold, or a major improvement on inflation. Right after the report, chances for a rate cut at any time this year were 8%, while investors still bake in 17% odds of a possible hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Chances are nearly three out of four that rates stay right where they are all year, however, not much changed from before the jobs data. Hike odds typically rise each time the war heats up and crude jumps, emphasizing the key role high crude prices now play in determining possible Fed policy. The Fed also is likely to monitor today's 10 a.m. ET preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, especially the inflation expectations component. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term ends a week from today, has consistently used a nautical term to describe the importance of this metric, hoping to keep inflation expectations "well anchored." The report's one-year metric—likely affected by oil prices—is less important than the long-term outlook. Long-run inflation expectations rose to 3.5% in April from 3.2% in March, and another tick upward would likely get hawks' attention.
    
3. Dove flies: The end of Jerome Powell's chairmanship a week from today also likely marks the last day Gov. Stephen Miran will be a member of the Fed's board. Assuming Kevin Warsh takes over as chairman that day, Powell will stay as Fed governor, leaving Miran without a seat. "Miran was the ultra-uber dove," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, or SCFR. "If Powell had decided to leave, then President Trump would be able to appoint somebody else. Possibly it might have been Miran—who would have had to go through confirmation again. But an important facet of this looking ahead is that the uber dove is not a member of the Fed anymore." That, combined with a hawkish dissent from three policymakers last week, has rate cut odds relatively low for the rest of the year, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. Another Fed item to watch, possibly any time, is the Supreme Court's decision on President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Gov. Lisa Cook. A ruling against Trump might give the market more confidence in the Fed's ability to make decisions free of political pressure.

• CoreWeave (CRWV) fell 7% after the firm missed earnings expectations, though revenue topped analysts' thinking. Bookings reached the highest quarterly level in the firm's history, but second quarter guidance was below consensus.
   
• Block (XYZ) popped almost 8% after a solid earnings report that saw earnings top analysts' estimates while revenue matched. Guidance was above consensus views.
   
• Akamai Technologies (AKAM) surged more than 24% after the cybersecurity and cloud computing firm said a leading AI lab had agreed to a $1.8 billion, seven-year deal for its services in cloud infrastructure, Barron's reported.
   
• Lyft (LYFT) shares pushed the brakes, dropping 1.3%, after earnings missed expectations and revenue posted a narrow beat. Gross bookings rose 19% year over year, about as expected.
   
• Wendy's (WEN) heated up 5% as earnings and revenue topped analysts' consensus and the company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance. It also announced it entered a franchise agreement to build as many as 1,000 restaurants in China.
   
• Trade Desk (TTD) dropped 13% on earnings and guidance that missed expectations. The advertising-technology company subsequently received downgrades from several Wall Street firms.
   
• Cloudflare (NET) plunged almost 14%. Earnings were solid, coming in above expectations, but the cybersecurity company appeared to spook Wall Street by announcing a job cut affecting 1,100 employees, saying its usage of AI has increased more than 600% in the last three months. Nearly 100,000 tech workers have been laid off across the economy year-to-date versus 124,000 all of last year, Barron's noted.
   
• Gilead slipped almost 2% despite surpassing analysts' first quarter earnings expectations, as investors seemed disappointed by the biotech firm's guidance, which it lowered.
   
• Datadog (DDOG) soared 31% Thursday after the monitoring and analytics company topped analysts' quarterly estimates. The strength in its results might have helped explain solid outings Thursday in other software names.

Why oil spiked in U.S.: Though the U.S. imports little crude from the Persian Gulf, oil prices soared here as well as globally due to the war. Learn why U.S. oil has become a more global benchmark thanks in part to higher production and exports, and how that affects prices at home, in Schwab's latest look at markets and the economy.

Volatility has subsided over the last two weeks, but the eight-month futures curve of Cboe Volatility Index futures (/VX—red line) shows traders expecting volatility to pick up, rising eventually to around 23 by early next year. That's not far off the destination VIX futures traced a month ago (yellow line), though that curve looked flat because VIX was higher to begin with then. Either way, the chart shows market participants baking uncertainty into their forecasts despite hopes for an end to the war.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

May 11: April existing home sales and expected earnings from Constellation Energy (CEG) and Circle Internet Group (CRCL).
May 12: April CPI and core CPI, and expected earnings from JD.Com (JD).
May 13: April PPI and core PPI, and expected earnings from Alibaba (BABA) and Cisco (CSCO).
May 14: April retail sales and expected earnings from Applied Materials (AMAT).
May 15: April industrial production and capacity utilization.