Crude in Control: Stocks Down Again, Threaten Lows
March 19, 2026
Stocks hit four-month lows yesterday and threaten to reach new depths as Middle East attacks targeted energy infrastructure. The Fed's more hawkish bent added to bearish views.
Published as of: March 19, 2026, 9:16 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 6,624.70 | -91.39 | -1.36% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 46,225.15 | -768.11 | -1.63% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 22,152.42 | -327.11 | -1.46% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.30% | +0.04 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 100.01 | -0.07 | -0.07% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 26.97 | +1.88 | +7.81% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $96.99 | +$0.67 | +0.70% |
| Bitcoin | $69,475 | -$1,640 | -2.31% |
(Thursday market open) Wall Street limps into Thursday at new lows for the year and slightly down early as crude jumped after the U.S. threatened Iran's energy infrastructure. This follows the Federal Reserve keeping rates paused and projecting only one 2026 cut in its "dot plot." Markets slipped in dismal trading yesterday after the decision, though much of the pressure seemed generated by events thousands of miles away—including attacks by Iran on a Gulf natural gas hub.
"Notably, seven Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have dots suggesting no cuts this year, which suggests that the Fed can take a patient approach going forward," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR), in his analysis of the Fed meeting. "Prior to the war, we thought inflation would be in the driver's seat for policy over the first half of the year, and that still seems to be the case now." The Fed also watches employment. Initial weekly jobless claims scratched the bottom of their recent range at 205,000, the government said this morning.
On Wednesday, major indexes fell 1%. A scorching U.S. February Producer Price Index (PPI) report spooked investors—and its readings were collected before the war sent crude prices sky-high. Investors awoke to fresh bearish war news today when Reuters reported that the Trump administration is sending thousands of troops to the Middle East. "This crisis is becoming less about the ultimate peak in oil prices and more about how long they remain elevated," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at SCFR, and Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at SCFR, in their latest look at the war's impact.
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Three things to watch
- Fed decision deeper dive: After the Fed projected one cut this year in its dot plot yesterday, there's just a 5% chance of a cut at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. By December, the futures market puts odds of at least one cut at 39%, down from 95% a month ago. There's also now a 4% chance of a hike this year. Nothing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said seemed to ease markets that were already weak, considering Wall Street rallied to record highs earlier this year factoring in a looser rate environment. Generally, the Fed's tone was hawkish, with the message that it could quickly veer away from rate cuts if necessary. The Fed's economic projections now see slightly higher inflation this year, at 2.7% for core PCE versus the prior 2.5%. An increase was expected, and further small increases in 2027 "suggest that the committee does see the risk of higher inflation as transitory for now," my colleague Martin said. The Fed also raised its U.S. growth estimates slightly. Fewer policymakers than in December predicted two or more rate cuts this year. The Treasury market now appears to factor in tighter policy, evident in the 10-year note yield's four-basis point gain this morning back to near recent highs above 4.3%. Treasury auctions next week could be worth watching to see if these higher yields find demand.
- S&P valuation down but still elevated: Recent declines put the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 20.9, slightly below the peak of 22 earlier this year while still above the five-year average of 20. The next few weeks before earnings season kicks off are key. If oil remains pricey and there's no progress toward ending the war, analysts and the companies they follow might start lowering guidance, meaning P/E could start creeping up again (unless major indexes also fall). In one warning sign, Honeywell International (HON) shares dipped Tuesday after the company warned that the war could hurt first-quarter revenue. The conflict has spiked energy prices, squeezed raw material supplies, and triggered doubts about key trade routes, pressuring costs and margins across industries. And while Delta Air Lines (DAL) said earlier this week it sees first-quarter revenue above consensus views, it also faces higher fuel-related costs. It's a reminder for investors to watch profit margins when earnings start next month. Elevated risk premiums reinforce the case for balanced portfolios with quality, defensive exposure, and global diversification.
- Charts show major indexes on shaky ground: Technically, Wednesday was a disappointment for bulls. The Nasdaq Composite, which earlier this week clawed back above its 200-day moving average after a brief drop below it for the first time since May, fell under that key level of 22,223, closing at 22,152.42. The S&P 500 Index, which also hasn't been below its 200-day since May, finished a handful of points above it at 6,624. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a new closing low for the year. Losses accelerated into the close, suggesting that both indexes would have suffered further damage had trading not ended for the day. This sets up a soft technical situation heading into Thursday. Several days of closes below the 200-day average for either index might trigger fresh technical selling. The November low close of 6,538 might then be an area to watch in the SPX, and below that, 6,500.
Crypto currents
Long-term belief versus short-term relief as bitcoin tests resistance: Bitcoin hit a six-week high above $74,000 this week, nearly 20% off its early February low, and is showing signs of stabilizing after a near-vertical selloff in February. Spot exchange-traded funds have seen net inflows on a seven-day average since February 25, with 30-day net inflows reaching the highest level since October, according to data from Glassnode. This indicates mainstream investors are slowly coming back after the coin's 50% drop since October. But there's resistance overhead. For one thing, while long-term holders (those with positions older than 155 days) have been net adding since March 5, short-term holders (less than 155 days) are selling into strength above $70,000, according to Glassnode, eager to relieve the pain they endured on the way down. (Bitcoin fell about 5% Wednesday.) For the current rally to survive, new buyers will need to step in to absorb that selling, and it's not clear they are standing by. While improving, futures open interest remains at the lowest level in 17 months, indicating subdued demand for leveraged speculation, while perpetual futures funding rates and some options data point to a crowded short trade, particularly around $75,000. In fact, short-covering may explain some of the recent gains, and may fuel further upside, but it likely won't fuel a sustainable rally.
On the move
- Micron (MU) fell 7% early despite a solid earnings report late yesterday. The memory chip giant turned in record quarterly revenue of $23.86 billion, blowing past estimates for $20.1 billion in revenue. Shares had risen 350% over the last year heading into earnings, so the selling might reflect profit taking, but investors also seemed concerned about Micron's projected rise in capital expenditures.
- Darden Restaurants (DRI), which operates popular dining brands including Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, inched up in trading ahead of the open after a mixed quarterly report that saw earnings match consensus but revenue fall slightly short. Total quarterly sales rose 5.9% annually.
- Alibaba (BABA) lost more than 4% in early trading after the Chinese firm missed analysts' earnings and revenue estimates.
- Five Below (FIVE) rallied to early 7% gains after the company surpassed analysts' earnings and revenue expectations and offered positive guidance.
- Rivian (RIVN) jumped 9% ahead of the open following the company's announcement that Uber will invest as much as $1.25 billion in Rivian to deploy as many as 50,000 robotaxis through 2031, CNBC reported.
- FedEx (FDX) slipped ahead of its earnings later today. Last month, FedEx guided above analysts' expectations for fiscal third-quarter earnings, citing an "exceptional" holiday season, CNBC reported.
- U.S. Crude (/CL) prices rose slightly while Brent crude, which is the global price benchmark and more exposed to the war impact, soared 6% to $114 per barrel about an hour before the U.S. open. The growing premium of Brent to U.S. oil has the dollar index back above 100 today, reflecting investor belief that the energy shock could have a bigger effect on overseas economies.
- The Bank of England and Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged today.
More insights from Schwab
Fed meeting dissected: After the Fed kept rates paused Wednesday, Schwab delivered post-meeting thoughts from SCFR's Martin, who noted that the Fed raised GDP projections for this year, 2027, and 2028, "suggesting the committee isn't too focused on the negative consequences of higher oil prices yet." Check the article for more of Martin's insights.
" id="body_disclosure--media_disclosure--183791" >Fed meeting dissected: After the Fed kept rates paused Wednesday, Schwab delivered post-meeting thoughts from SCFR's Martin, who noted that the Fed raised GDP projections for this year, 2027, and 2028, "suggesting the committee isn't too focused on the negative consequences of higher oil prices yet." Check the article for more of Martin's insights.
Strait talk: The central focus of the war with Iran is shifting from intensity to duration, especially as it pertains to how long traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, wrote Sonders and Gordon, in their latest look at the conflict and its impact. "The spike in crude oil is raising concerns about consumer spending and corporate profit margins," they said.
Investing in volatile times: Checking 12 military conflicts from World War II through the Israel-Hamas war, SCFR found that in nine, the S&P 500 was higher a year after the conflict began. Exceptions were wars that started during periods of economic or market downturns. Many investors seek to exit amid trouble, but it's extremely difficult to time the market successfully. And there's no need to try.
Crypto questions pondered: As the digital asset industry matures, fundamental narratives may increasingly influence prices. This raises key debates, outlined in our new analysis by Jim Ferraioli, director of digital currencies research and strategy at SCFR.
Chart of the day
Data source: CME Group. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Bitcoin evangelists have had a lot to say about the cryptocurrency outperforming gold and stocks since the Iran war started. But at the time bitcoin was near long-term lows after a steep selloff, while gold and stocks weren't far off all-time highs. Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization (see "Crypto currents" above) but the rally in bitcoin futures (/BTC—candlesticks) merely set up a test of a falling 50-day simple moving average (red line), from which it quickly retreated late Tuesday and Wednesday. The coin remains well below the 200-day moving average (green line).
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
March 20: No major data or earnings expected.
March 23: January construction spending.
March 24: Expected earnings from GameStop (GME) and KB Home (KBH).
March 25: February durable goods orders and expected earnings from Cintas (CTAS), Paychex (PAYX), and Chewy (CHWY).
March 26: No major earnings or data expected.