Wall Street Tug of War: Geopolitics, Data Compete

Published as of: September 28, 2026, 9:13 a.m. ET

(Monday market open) Investors face a full slate of inflation and labor data this week along with results from Micron (MU) and Nike (NKE). Stocks slid early, hit by rising oil and yields after the U.S. rejected Iran's terms to reopen the strait, though talks are expected to resume. Several Federal Reserve speakers pepper today's calendar following recent hawkish views from many.

Though earnings make a showing, coming days are all about jobs, peaking Friday with September nonfarm payrolls. Early consensus for payrolls, which also could influence Fed policy, is for a decent showing near 85,000, below August's level but above the three-month average. The data follows last week's yield rocket ride partly reflecting firm U.S. economic growth. If jobs data is hot, it could exacerbate that trend. Though the broader market rose last week, index strength masked softness below as two stocks fell for each that gained.

Major indexes rebounded Friday as Treasury yields and oil eased on hopes for Middle East progress. Where stocks go near-term likely depends on oil, which often affects yields. "If Treasury yields pull back (or at least stop moving higher), this could help provide a lift to stocks," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "Additionally, seasonality shifts in the bulls' favor as we exit September, and third-quarter earnings season is essentially a couple weeks away."

1. Breadth check: The S&P 500's case of bad breadth continued last week, with just 27% of components trading above their 50-day moving averages at the close Friday. Only 1% of the index traded at a 52-week high late last week and only 8% traded at a four-week high. Of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, only two posted any names at a 52-week high. The S&P has done very well at the index level this year, not even suffering a correction, defined as a 10% decline from previous highs. Underneath, it's a different and far more volatile story. When the S&P 500 corrected in February and March, it fell about 9%, but the average member within the S&P 500 has had a drawdown of 26% year-to-date, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at SCFR, in last Friday's On Investing podcast. "So that's bear-market level declines," Sonders said. "It's just happened through a process of churn and rotation."
    
2. Under PCE's surface: Wednesday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is often easy for analysts to estimate because it follows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). Both reports feed into PCE, often preventing surprises. However, PCE's importance is undebatable, as it's the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. In checking PCE, it's important to keep more than the headlines in mind. While 2% inflation is still the Fed's target and progress toward that remains key, additional context could influence. This includes the share of PCE components that rose 3% or more year over year, providing insight into price breadth. This is a metric Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cited at his press conference earlier this month. And New York Fed President John Williams said last week he'd like to see monthly core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, rise 0.2% or less. "If it comes in a little hot, that suggests more hiking might be necessary," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at SCFR.
    
3. Housing market faces new challenge for sellers: Reacting to surging bond yields, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage moved above 7% last week, marking the first move above this psychologically significant level since January 2025. While a 7% rate isn't especially high by historical standards, it is up from 6.3% a year ago and may further challenge an already limp housing market. Inventory is flush—currently 1.5 million homes are for sale, a 46% increase from 2023, per Redfin. Given this increased competition, it's no surprise that the typical home is on the market for 50 days, up from 36 three years ago. We'll get another look at housing-market health tomorrow, when the August S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index is released. Analysts are currently expecting a modest increase of 0.5%. But Redfin said one in five homes for sale saw its price reduced in August. The good news? It could be considered a buyer's market. The bad news? Roughly four-fifths of potential buyers are already homeowners, meaning they'll likely be wanting to sell a home, too.

• AI stocks fell almost across the board early after OpenAI said it paused training of its most capable models and only will resume once OpenAI is "confident" that additional safeguards are in place. Some stocks down more than 2% included Arm Holdings (ARM), Sandisk (SNDK), Oracle (ORCL), Snowflake (SNOW), and Intel (INTC).
   
• Meta Platforms (META) fell 2.7%, extending Friday's losses, after double-digit gains last week riding on enthusiasm over its Muse AI agent. Today's losses reflected overall AI weakness on the OpenAI news, which rekindled AI safety concerns.
   
• Nvidia (NVDA) bucked the lower AI trend this morning, climbing more than 1%. The company added $150 billion to its share repurchase authorization and launched an AI safety platform. It's the largest buyback in history.
   
• SpaceX (SPCX) climbed nearly a percent early. It launched its Starship this morning in an attempt to reach orbit with the spacecraft for the first time.
   
• Boeing (BA) descended 2.6%. The Wall Street Journal reported that Boeing is dealing with a 737 MAX software glitch. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is investigating.
   
• Sweetgreen (SG) climbed nearly 4% early on a Wells Fargo upgrade to overweight from equal weight.
   
• MongoDB (MDB) tumbled 16% early after Meta hired MongoDB's CEO, CNBC reported. MongoDB reaffirmed guidance following the news.
   
• Gold fell more than 3% and other precious metals also sank early as rate hike odds strengthened in the U.S. and overseas. Early today, odds of an October Fed rate hike stood at 70%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Mining stocks dropped pressure as gold sank.
   
• Microsoft (MSFT) surged 3.7% Friday after saying it's updating its Copilot app for corporate workers in what CNBC said appeared to be a challenge to Anthropic's Claude.
   
• Dell (DELL) rose 5% Friday on positive views from Morgan Stanley.
   
• Bloom Energy (BE) climbed 8% Friday, lifted by AI data center demand hopes.

Which stocks got shorted: The latest edition of Schwab's short interest monitor features a mixed set of companies, including tech firms, retailers, and energy market players. Several of the companies shorted struggle with inflation.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX—candlesticks) has easily outpaced the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW—purple line) this month. The SPXEW, which weighs all components equally, showed a bit more life Friday as yields and oil lost some zip, giving a broader range of stocks and sectors some support. It remains weak versus the SPX, however. A broader rally would likely give the SPXEW more spark.

September 29: August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and consumer confidence for September.
September 30: ADP September employment change, August PCE prices, second quarter GDP-third estimate, and expected earnings from Micron (MU), Conagra (CAG), and Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI).
October 1: August construction spending, September ISM Manufacturing PMI^®, S&P Global final September U.S. Manufacturing PMI, and expected earnings from Accenture (ACN), McCormick & Company (MKC), and Nike (NKE).
October 2: September nonfarm payrolls, September unemployment, and August factory orders. 
October 5: September ISM Services PMI^®.