Stocks Flat, Yields and Oil Down on Data, War News
May 7, 2026
After the blistering mid-week rally, stocks flattened early amid a host of data and earnings and as investors remain hopeful peace talks can resume. Oil and yields both retreated.
Published as of: May 7, 2026, 9:27 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 7,365.12 | +105.90 | +1.46% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 49,910.59 | +612.34 | +1.24% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 25,838.94 | +512.84 | +2.02% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.32% | -0.03 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 97.85 | -0.17 | -0.18% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 17.35 | -0.04 | -0.23% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $90.32 | -$4.76 | -5.01% |
| Bitcoin | $81,400 | -$335 | 0.41% |
(Thursday market open) Wall Street took an early breather from its rapid, record-breaking mid-week rally. Major indexes flattened and crude slipped more than 5% as the U.S. awaited a response from Iran to its latest proposal ahead of possible talks. In a data appetizer to Friday's main course of nonfarm payrolls, April job cuts climbed sharply, but that apparently didn't stop people from having a bite at McDonald's (MCD), which reported strong quarterly results.
Though the conflict remains central, focus shifts Friday to April nonfarm payrolls, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. The average analyst estimate for new jobs has slipped over the course of the week and the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.3%. "The labor market has been showing some signs of stabilization, so Friday's report will be closely watched to see if last month's strong report was a one off or the start of a trend," said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR).
On Wednesday, major indexes posted their second straight day of record highs for the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Russell 2000®. The Dow Jones Industrial Average clawed back above 50,000 briefly late in the session. Volatility slid and the dollar fell almost 0.5%, another sign of easing war fears. Strong earnings from chip giant Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) helped lead the way, sending semiconductor stocks up another 4%. In data today, weekly initial jobless claims stayed low at 200,000 while preliminary first quarter productivity of 0.8% fell from 1.6% in the fourth quarter. Unit labor costs rose less than expected at 2.3%. Treasury yields fell on the data and cheaper oil.
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Three things to watch
- Jobs data looms, with revisions in focus: Estimates for April jobs growth in Friday's nonfarm payrolls report are now around 60,000, well below 178,000 in March. Revisions to previous reports may also be worth checking tomorrow morning, as will wage growth, which has generally been solid. Service-providing jobs dominated the ADP employment number yesterday, and these tend to pay less than goods-producing ones. The ADP report doesn't often correlate with the official jobs data from the government. If jobs growth is light or the report contains negative revisions, it should be taken in context. With labor participation slipping and immigration down, the "break-even" rate of jobs—or the gains needed to keep the unemployment rate steady—is low today. The unemployment rate has held between 4% and 4.5% for 21 straight months, but job cuts rose to 83,387 in April from 60,620 in March, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The tech sector announced the most at 33,361.
- Rate hike odds slip, yields still watching Iran: Treasury yields slipped Wednesday as investors began to pull back on ideas of any rate hikes this year. Early today, the CME FedWatch Tool put odds of a rate cut this year at 17%, and chances of a hike fell to 14% from nearly 30% earlier in the week as peace hopes grew. Odds remain about two in three that rates will remain right where they are all year between 3.5% and 3.75%. The Federal Reserve last cut in December. Treasury yields may drift modestly higher this year, assuming the economy stays resilient and inflation expectations stay anchored, Schwab's Howard said. "The situation in Iran will continue to drive the outlook for rates," he said. "So far, the situation in Iran hasn't dramatically altered the outlook for the economy but the longer it lingers, the greater the likelihood that it will."
- Balance beam: With the market up dramatically from late-March lows, participants might want to check their portfolios to be sure they're still comfortable with their equity exposure. This is especially for anyone holding positions in tech, because this can mean a much larger portion now devoted to one part of the market and possibly exposed if there's a pullback. Someone who entered the year wanting 70% of their portfolio in equities might find that that it's now 80% thanks to the rally. Rebalancing doesn't mean leaving the market or selling off big winners but can include paring some positions in hopes of reducing risk. Rebalancing is designed to keep a portfolio's targeted allocation across various asset classes--and intended level of risk--consistent over time. Someone who never rebalances his or her portfolio is letting the market dictate its level of risk rather than being intentional about it.
Crypto currents
More signs of a thaw as bitcoin tops $80,000: It's looking more and more like crypto spring after bitcoin reclaimed $80,000 for the first time since January. That marks a 26% rise from the January low. But is it the start of a bull run or merely an intermediate top? Among the bullish indicators: Traditional investors appear to be feeling more comfortable. The Fear & Greed Index last week moved past "fear" to "neutral" for the first time since January, and on Tuesday the 30-day moving average of net inflows to spot bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETP) hit the highest level since October, according to Glassnode data. Similarly, last week net inflows to treasury accounts hit the highest level since November, while futures open interest net flows sit just below an eight-month high. But these look more like signs of normalization than a bull market. ETP inflows are at roughly half their 2025 peak, overall spot volumes are barely above two-year lows, and perpetual futures funding rates indicate that short positions continue to dominate. Many investors are still cutting their losses, and others taking quick profits, as price approaches $83,700, the current average cost basis for spot ETPs. In other words, the bulls have some work to do.
" id="body_disclosure--media_disclosure--203371" >More signs of a thaw as bitcoin tops $80,000: It's looking more and more like crypto spring after bitcoin reclaimed $80,000 for the first time since January. That marks a 26% rise from the January low. But is it the start of a bull run or merely an intermediate top? Among the bullish indicators: Traditional investors appear to be feeling more comfortable. The Fear & Greed Index last week moved past "fear" to "neutral" for the first time since January, and on Tuesday the 30-day moving average of net inflows to spot bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETP) hit the highest level since October, according to Glassnode data. Similarly, last week net inflows to treasury accounts hit the highest level since November, while futures open interest net flows sit just below an eight-month high. But these look more like signs of normalization than a bull market. ETP inflows are at roughly half their 2025 peak, overall spot volumes are barely above two-year lows, and perpetual futures funding rates indicate that short positions continue to dominate. Many investors are still cutting their losses, and others taking quick profits, as price approaches $83,700, the current average cost basis for spot ETPs. In other words, the bulls have some work to do.
On the move
- McDonald's rose 3% after earnings surpassed expectations and revenue came in as expected. In the important global comparable sales category, sales at stores open a year or more rose 3.8%, while U.S. comparable sales rose 3.9%, down sequentially from 7%. In its release, the company cited "a challenging environment," but analysts said sales may have benefited from a much-panned viral video of McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski tentatively trying the new Big Arch burger.
- Arm Holdings (ARM) tumbled 8% despite earnings and revenue topping estimates. The share loss came after an initial climb following the quarterly results and positive guidance. Investors might be concerned about the prospect of higher costs as Arm begins to make its own chips, Barron's noted, and valuation was high coming into the earnings report.
- Fastly (FSLY), a cloud platform provider, crumbled 25% ahead of the open even though the firm's earnings topped consensus and guidance got raised. Shares have tripled so far this year, so the response could be a "sell the news" type of event.
- IonQ (IONQ) slipped 6% after the quantum computing firm topped analysts' revenue estimates and narrowed its loss. Guidance climbed along with remaining performance obligations, but the stock's drop suggests investors might have hoped for even more, Barron's noted.
- Shake Shack (SHAK) took a 22% spill early today after both earnings and revenue missed analysts' expectations. Revenue rose 14.3% year over year, while "same-shack sales" rose 4.6% annually. In a letter to shareholders, the company cited a "challenging macro environment and inclement weather."
- Fortinet (FTNT) soared 15.6% in early action after earnings and guidance from the cybersecurity firm appeared to impress investors. The news lifted shares of other cybersecurity firms, too, with Palo Alto Networks (PANW) up 3% and CrowdStrike (CRWD) up 2%. The sector has faced concerns about potential AI competition.
- DoorDash (DASH) surged 9% early even though quarterly revenue appeared to slightly miss Wall Street's average estimate. The strength in shares could reflect a 27% rise in total orders last quarter, and the company reporting healthy demand trends and earnings per share above consensus.
- Snap (SNAP) fell 8.5% early as revenue matched consensus and active users rose more than expected. Cautious guidance appeared to hurt shares, with the company saying that "large advertisers in North America remained a headwind to advertising growth."
- Whirlpool (WHR) lost 21% after earnings and revenue missed consensus, while the company also lowered fiscal 2026 guidance below the average Wall Street estimate. The company blamed the war in Iran for a decline in consumer confidence.
- Japan's Nikkei index rose 5.7% to new record highs overnight.
More insights from Schwab
A trip around Wall Street: In the latest WashingtonWise podcast, Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at SCFR, shared her perspective on the strong corporate earnings season, the implications of tariff refunds for companies, how to think about the evolving "AI trade," and what the change in leadership at the Fed could mean for interest rates and the markets.
" id="body_disclosure--media_disclosure--183791" >A trip around Wall Street: In the latest WashingtonWise podcast, Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at SCFR, shared her perspective on the strong corporate earnings season, the implications of tariff refunds for companies, how to think about the evolving "AI trade," and what the change in leadership at the Fed could mean for interest rates and the markets.
Insight on earnings: S&P 500 earnings growth is tracking near 28% year over year with beat rates above historical medians, supporting expectations for potential continued strength into the second quarter absent a major macro shift. Get more insight on earnings to date from the Schwab Center for Financial Research's in our latest look at markets and the economy.
P/E primer: With stocks setting record highs almost every day, read our new look at price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and how to use them. P/E is one of many indicators of a company's fundamentals and shouldn't be used in isolation. But combined with other valuation metrics, it can help investors quickly evaluate stocks and make more informed investment decisions.
Pin risk in options trading: Learn about the risk of the iron condor pin, why it happens, and what traders can do to best avoid a naked short at expiration.
What's DTI? Learn about the debt-to-income ratio: Your debt to income ratio measures how much of your income goes toward required debt payments. Lenders use the ratio to evaluate borrowing risk and determine loan eligibility. Understanding how it works can be the difference between feeling stuck and making progress toward your financial goals.
Chart of the day
Data sources: CME Group. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Bitcoin futures (/BTC—candlesticks) have worked their way just above $80,000 to the highest level since January. But the area around the average cost basis for spot exchange-traded products (about $83,700) could act as resistance if investors look to cut their losses or take profits after the months-long downturn. Further overhead is the 200-day moving average (green line).
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
May 8: April nonfarm payrolls, preliminary May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and expected earnings from Sony (SONY) and Enbridge (ENB).
May 11: April existing home sales and expected earnings from Constellation Energy (CEG) and Circle Internet Group (CRCL).
May 12: April CPI and core CPI, and expected earnings from JD.Com (JD).
May 13: April PPI and core PPI, and expected earnings from Alibaba (BABA) and Cisco (CSCO).
May 14: April retail sales and expected earnings from Applied Materials (AMAT).