Stocks Flat Following Iran Skirmishes, PCE Data
May 28, 2026
Markets were flat early after PCE inflation data hit below expectations but the government's estimate for GDP was revised downward. Strikes in Iran threatened resolution.
Published as of: May 28, 2026, 9:21 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 7,520.36 | +1.24 | + 0.02% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 50,644.28 | +182.60 | +0.36% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 26,674.73 | +18.55 | +0.07% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.47% | Unch | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 99.14 | -0.06 | -0.06% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 16.43 | +0.14 | +0.86% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $90.55 | +$1.89 | +2.13% |
| Bitcoin | $73,245 | -$1,455 | -1.94% |
(Thursday market open) A flood of data before the open gave investors a mixed economic picture, including a slight break from inflation pressure but weaker-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Stocks—down before the reports following tit-for-tat strikes by Iran and the U.S. that sent crude oil up—clawed back to the flat line after the data release.
The critical Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for April was slightly below expectations at 0.4% for headline and 0.2% for core, which strips out food and energy. Consensus from Briefing.com was 0.5% for headline and 0.3% for core. Checking annual numbers, core PCE rose 3.3%, as expected and up from 3.2% in March, while headline PCE rose 3.8%."Inflation is still elevated and rising more than the Fed wants, but it was better than expected." said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR).
Looking beyond data and oil, today is crowded with earnings from Dollar Tree (DLTR), Best Buy (BBY), Costco (COST), and Gap (GAP). Retailers generally fared well in the reports out this morning, giving the sector an early lift. On Wednesday, major indexes held their ground but couldn't find much upward traction amid weakness in some of the largest tech stocks including Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Broadcom (AVGO). Tech shares generally fell, as did financials, but consumer names gained.
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Three things to watch
- PCE/GDP deeper dive: Dissecting PCE, there were crosscurrents. For instance, the report showed a large 4.9% annual gain in nondurable goods, while energy prices rose 18.9% year over year. Prices for motor vehicles and parts and furnishings slipped, and services-related PCE climbed much less than goods. The government's second estimate for first quarter GDP of 1.6% annualized—down from the first estimate of 2%—might raise eyebrows, perhaps a sign of the war and higher oil prices slowing the economy. Personal income was flat in April while personal spending rose 0.5%. "A concern from these numbers is that it shows investors are tapping into their savings to keep up with spending, and the longer the situation in Iran lasts, the more likely we continue to see higher energy costs, further hurting consumers on the low end of the 'K'," Howard said, referring to the so-called "K-shaped" economy featuring big spending from high-income consumers and weakness at the lower end of the income scale. The GDP report's inflation monitor, the GDP Chain Deflator, came in at 3.5%, down a touch from 3.6% in the prior report, while April durable goods excluding transportation rose 1.1%--solid monthly growth contrasting with the dip in GDP.
- Tech still vulnerable to pullbacks: Earnings later from Dell could serve as a reminder about both the sweet and sour elements of the tech rally. Like other AI-related firms, shares of Dell are up sharply over the last two months after solid guidance the last time Dell reported. Investors hoping for more of the same later today from Dell and from another round of big tech earnings next week should keep in mind that growth and high-multiple stocks remain especially sensitive to rising rates and higher energy costs, which means leadership could narrow quickly if macro conditions worsen. In one positive sign that market depth is broadening and perhaps making indexes less vulnerable to a tech-driven pullback, market breadth did climb recently. As of Wednesday, more than 58% of S&P 500 stocks traded above their 50-day moving average, up from around 43% two weeks ago. Even so, that's not the kind of number that's considered extremely healthy from a breadth perspective, meaning market strength remains relatively narrow. "Breadth continues to be somewhat challenged," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at SCFR.
- Position check: Strong earnings growth and less focus on the war helped stocks climb to their recent record highs. At the same time, there's still a lot of froth in the market and many stocks have come a long way very quickly. Meaning it's not all about fundamentals. "The market continues to look like a casino floor," Sonders said. "There's tons of short attention span money all chasing the same themes, with cohorts playing off other cohorts' positioning." With the midway point of the year coming up soon, investors might want to check their positioning and consider rebalancing. The long rally could have many market participants more exposed to stocks--particularly high-flying tech and chip names—than they might have initially planned. Another concern is summer doldrums that sometimes show up this time of year when earnings season ends and near-term catalysts fade. While there's nothing in stone when it comes to seasonal factors, historically June tends to be a weak month.
Crypto currents
Short-term momentum has turned down for bitcoin after it failed repeatedly in recent weeks to climb above its 200-day moving average. As of Wednesday, the cryptocurrency was trading at around $75,000, near its lowest level in about a month, having slid below a rising 50-day moving average. One measure of recent selling: Last week, spot bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETP) suffered their worst weekly net outflows since January, losing $1.3 billion, according to Glassnode data. That followed net outflows of about $1 billion the previous week. A convergence of multiple forms of technical resistance is likely at least partly to blame for the reversal. That included the 200-day and the average cost basis for ETP investors at around $83,000. But bitcoin also lacks a strong catalyst in an unfavorable macro environment—at least for now. The AI trade and prediction markets are pulling in hot money, while inflation and bond yields are rising, which is bullish for the dollar and bearish for bitcoin.
On the move
- Snowflake (SNOW), a cloud-based software company, spiked 38% on earnings and revenue that beat consensus and higher-than-expected guidance that it raised from the previous quarter. The gains also reflected Snowflake's announcement it expanded its collaboration with Amazon Web Services, a division of Amazon (AMZN), in what it called a "$6 billion commitment to accelerate enterprise agentic AI adoption."
- Salesforce (CRM) inched up after falling initially on earnings results. The software giant beat quarterly estimates but offered mixed guidance. The stock might also be reacting to news of the company's expanded collaboration with CVS Health (CVS). ServiceNow (NOW), an industry peer of Salesforce, climbed 5%.
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) fell 2% on earnings and revenue that roughly matched analysts' expectations and revenue guidance that topped consensus. Data center revenue rose 11% sequentially, a bit more than the company had guided, but shares had risen 150% in the last three months, possibly leading to a "sell the news" reaction.
- DollarTree (DLTR) jumped 13% ahead of the open as quarterly results topped expectations for earnings per share. The company also guided for above-consensus earnings.
- Chip sector stocks faded early Thursday on renewed hostilities in the Persian Gulf that raised oil prices and Treasury yields.
- Dell climbed 4% this morning ahead of earnings scheduled later. When Dell reported in late February, shares surged more than 20% as the company said it expected AI server revenue to double in 2027. Guidance today will likely get a close look to see what Dell can serve as a follow-up to that positive report. Before earnings, Dell received a $9.7 billion Pentagon contract, The Wall Street Journal reported.
- Best Buy added 7% ahead of the open, bolstered by earnings that topped Wall Street's expectations and reaffirmation of its fiscal 2027 guidance. Sales at stores open a year or more rose 2% annually in the quarter.
- Kohl's (KSS) jumped 9%. Earnings beat expectations and revenues roughly matched consensus, while the company reaffirmed guidance and reported sales at stores open a year or more fell 1.1%.
- Cryptocurrency-related names including Strategy (MSTR), Coinbase (COIN), and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) fell ahead of the open as bitcoin (/BTC) dropped 2% in risk-off trading possibly related to war worries.
- AppLovin (APP) rose 10% Wednesday after Morgan Stanley issued a bullish note on the company.
More insights from Schwab
New sheriff at the Fed: Kevin Warsh is officially the 17th Fed chairman and is likely to work on building consensus rather than pushing for near-term rate cuts, writes Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab, in his newest "Washington: What to Watch Now."
" id="body_disclosure--media_disclosure--183791" >New sheriff at the Fed: Kevin Warsh is officially the 17th Fed chairman and is likely to work on building consensus rather than pushing for near-term rate cuts, writes Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab, in his newest "Washington: What to Watch Now."
Day trading changes at Schwab: Starting June 8, Schwab will no longer count day trades in margin accounts after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved scrapping the old rules, including the pattern day trader (PDT) designation and the $25,000 equity requirement. Learn more in our new article on margin.
Chart of the day
Data sources: Nasdaq. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX—candlesticks) found dip buyers after falling to its 20-day moving average (blue line) last week. While chips slid again Wednesday, another test of the 20-day could be interesting to see if dip buyers return, and it's a level technicians are watching. The other thing to watch is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the SOX. This momentum indicator shows signs of flattening in recent sessions even as the SOX makes new all-time highs, which might indicate some consolidation ahead.
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
May 29: No major data or earnings expected.
June 1: April construction spending, May ISM Manufacturing PMI®, and expected earnings from Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)
June 2: Expected earnings from Dollar General (DG), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Ulta Beauty (ULTA).
June 3: April factory orders, May ISM Services PMI®, and expected earnings from Medtronic (MDT), Macy's (M), Broadcom (AVGO), and CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD).
June 4: First quarter nonfarm productivity and expected earnings from Ciena (CIEN), Planet Labs (PL), and Lululemon Athletica (LULU).