Stocks Up Despite Fading Rate Cut Hopes Before CPI

February 12, 2026 Joe Mazzola
Despite lower rate cut hopes after the jobs report, stocks climbed with tech leading as investors await Friday's CPI. Cisco, AppLovin, and McDonald's dropped following earnings.

Published as of: February 12, 2026, 9:16 a.m. ET

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The markets Last price Change % change
S&P 500® Index 6,941.47 -0.34 -0.00%
Dow Jones Industrial Average® 50,121.40 -66.74 -0.13%
Nasdaq Composite® 23,066.47 -36.01 -0.16%
10-year Treasury yield 4.16% -0.02 --
U.S. Dollar Index 96.80 -0.02 -0.03%
Cboe Volatility Index® 17.26 -0.39 -2.15%
WTI Crude Oil $64.18 -$0.45 -0.70%
Bitcoin $68,085 +$370 +0.55%

(Thursday market open) With the jobs market on slightly firmer footing after January's solid growth, the second aspect of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, inflation, arrives tomorrow. January's Consumer Price Index (CPI), due before Friday's open, is likely to show annual inflation well above the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing ideas that rate cuts might have to wait. Major indexes edged up early Thursday but may lack direction before CPI, while Treasury yields dipped from Wednesday's highs.

Today features some data palate cleansers between Wednesday and Friday's entrees. Initial jobless claims last week slipped by 5,000 to 227,000, below Briefing.com's consensus of 230,000. January existing home sales hit the tape soon after the open and are expected to fall slightly from December. Meanwhile, investors digest results from Cisco (CSCO), McDonald's (MCD), and AppLovin (APP), all of which received unenthusiastic receptions in early trading.

On Wednesday, stocks ended flat to lower on sliding rate cut hopes following the jobs report. Small caps—which tend to be more exposed to debt—fared the worst. Earnings continue this afternoon with Applied Materials (AMAT) and Arista Networks (ANET). The first, a semiconductor equipment manufacturer, beat analysts' expectations last time out but saw shares fall on cautious guidance. Arista is part of the AI infrastructure build-out and could be a decent barometer of demand. Chip and AI-related stocks generally rose early today, possibly a sign of risk-on sentiment.

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Three things to watch

  1. CPI could be hot: Tomorrow's January CPI report is expected to show 0.3% monthly growth for both headline and core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Annual core and headline growth are seen at 2.5%, not much changed from the December numbers. However, The Wall Street Journal notes that January CPI reports often exceed expectations, possibly a seasonal effect as businesses raise prices to start the year (check if your gym fee just climbed). This year, the impact could be more dramatic as companies pass along tariff-related cost increases. Last January's CPI was the highest of any month in 2025, as was the case in 2023 and almost in 2024. A hot CPI might spook investors, but the Fed could write it off as something statisticians need to address. December's warm Producer Price Index (PPI), the dollar's recent softness, and rising crude prices also may spark ideas that the Fed could wait longer to cut rates, perhaps a factor in trading as hedging climbed this week. After the jobs report, chances of at least one rate cut by June were around 60%, down from 75% earlier this week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. A hot CPI could lower those odds, but the Fed expects inflation to come down this year, especially as tariff-fueled inflation gains from 2025 get lapped by the annual data.
     
  2. Weather affected jobs report collection: January's icy conditions across the eastern U.S. affected the government's household data collection, used to determine the unemployment rate. The January response rate was below average, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said. This could suggest a revision ahead when February's report comes early next month and injects some uncertainty into the 4.3% unemployment rate in yesterday's January report. Another consideration—with 2025 jobs growth fully accounted for—is the dramatic drop in job creation over the last few years. Nonfarm payrolls growth was 2.5 million in 2023, 1.5 million in 2024, and 181,000 in 2025. "We have moved toward a jobless expansion," said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR).
     
  3. Tech softness prevents new records: The S&P 500 Index remains just below all-time intraday highs near 7,000 but appears to lack appetite for a true test of that level. Technically, the index is back above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, a positive chart move. The 50-day moving average of 6,894 might be a support point. Recent market breadth strength is good for depth below the surface, but creating and sustaining new all-time highs will likely require tech to take the pole position. From a momentum perspective, the S&P 500's Relative Strength Index, or RSI, at a recent level of 55 isn't too high to be a burden on any rally. Generally, overbought conditions aren't in place until RSI goes above 70. RSI has been losing some grip so far this year, down from the January peak of 62.

Crypto slide puts focus on treasury companies

It looked easy when "number go up." Digital asset treasury (DAT) companies sold stock, used the money to buy crypto, and watched the value of that crypto and their shares go up. That's their business model, and it worked just fine through much of 2025 as cryptocurrencies reached record highs, with DAT buying seen as a tailwind. In some cases, their market capitalization greatly exceeded that of their holdings. Now bitcoin is down by nearly half since October. The best-known DAT, the pioneering Strategy (MSTR), is sitting on an unrealized loss of $17.4 billion on its bitcoin holdings. It says it's not facing any financial stress and its market cap still slightly exceeds its holdings. But there are dozens of imitator DATs out there, some of whom have built up reserves in altcoins that have seen even bigger drops than bitcoin. DATs whose market cap sits below the value of their crypto holdings can't sell shares to buy more crypto without destroying shareholder value, meaning they can't add demand to the market. Some analysts warn that further crypto price declines could trigger forced liquidations, even among some of the biggest DATs, that would weigh on markets and possibly trigger a cascade of losses. Interesting times for those who spent 2025 vowing never to sell.

$12.4B Q4 net loss for bitcoin treasury company Strategy

It looked easy when "number go up." Digital asset treasury (DAT) companies sold stock, used the money to buy crypto, and watched the value of that crypto and their shares go up. That's their business model, and it worked just fine through much of 2025 as cryptocurrencies reached record highs, with DAT buying seen as a tailwind. In some cases, their market capitalization greatly exceeded that of their holdings. Now bitcoin is down by nearly half since October. The best-known DAT, the pioneering Strategy (MSTR), is sitting on an unrealized loss of $17.4 billion on its bitcoin holdings. It says it's not facing any financial stress and its market cap still slightly exceeds its holdings. But there are dozens of imitator DATs out there, some of whom have built up reserves in altcoins that have seen even bigger drops than bitcoin. DATs whose market cap sits below the value of their crypto holdings can't sell shares to buy more crypto without destroying shareholder value, meaning they can't add demand to the market. Some analysts warn that further crypto price declines could trigger forced liquidations, even among some of the biggest DATs, that would weigh on markets and possibly trigger a cascade of losses. Interesting times for those who spent 2025 vowing never to sell.

Strategy (MSTR), is sitting on an unrealized loss of $17.4 billion on its bitcoin holdings. It says it's not facing any financial stress and its market cap still slightly exceeds its holdings. But there are dozens of imitator DATs out there, some of whom have built up reserves in altcoins that have seen even bigger drops than bitcoin. DATs whose market cap sits below the value of their crypto holdings can't sell shares to buy more crypto without destroying shareholder value, meaning they can't add demand to the market. Some analysts warn that further crypto price declines could trigger forced liquidations, even among some of the biggest DATs, that would weigh on markets and possibly trigger a cascade of losses. Interesting times for those who spent 2025 vowing never to sell.

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It looked easy when "number go up." Digital asset treasury (DAT) companies sold stock, used the money to buy crypto, and watched the value of that crypto and their shares go up. That's their business model, and it worked just fine through much of 2025 as cryptocurrencies reached record highs, with DAT buying seen as a tailwind. In some cases, their market capitalization greatly exceeded that of their holdings. Now bitcoin is down by nearly half since October. The best-known DAT, the pioneering Strategy (MSTR), is sitting on an unrealized loss of $17.4 billion on its bitcoin holdings. It says it's not facing any financial stress and its market cap still slightly exceeds its holdings. But there are dozens of imitator DATs out there, some of whom have built up reserves in altcoins that have seen even bigger drops than bitcoin. DATs whose market cap sits below the value of their crypto holdings can't sell shares to buy more crypto without destroying shareholder value, meaning they can't add demand to the market. Some analysts warn that further crypto price declines could trigger forced liquidations, even among some of the biggest DATs, that would weigh on markets and possibly trigger a cascade of losses. Interesting times for those who spent 2025 vowing never to sell.

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It looked easy when "number go up." Digital asset treasury (DAT) companies sold stock, used the money to buy crypto, and watched the value of that crypto and their shares go up. That's their business model, and it worked just fine through much of 2025 as cryptocurrencies reached record highs, with DAT buying seen as a tailwind. In some cases, their market capitalization greatly exceeded that of their holdings. Now bitcoin is down by nearly half since October. The best-known DAT, the pioneering Strategy (MSTR), is sitting on an unrealized loss of $17.4 billion on its bitcoin holdings. It says it's not facing any financial stress and its market cap still slightly exceeds its holdings. But there are dozens of imitator DATs out there, some of whom have built up reserves in altcoins that have seen even bigger drops than bitcoin. DATs whose market cap sits below the value of their crypto holdings can't sell shares to buy more crypto without destroying shareholder value, meaning they can't add demand to the market. Some analysts warn that further crypto price declines could trigger forced liquidations, even among some of the biggest DATs, that would weigh on markets and possibly trigger a cascade of losses. Interesting times for those who spent 2025 vowing never to sell.

On the move

  • McDonald's (MCD) slipped less than 1% early today despite the company topping earnings and revenue expectations. McDonald's also increased its dividend and posted global sales growth of 5.7% at stores open at least a year. In its release, McDonald's said its efforts to improve value and affordability helped improve traffic. Shares had rallied into the report, suggesting pressure might reflect profit taking.
     
  • Cisco (CSCO) plunged 7% early Thursday even though earnings and revenue narrowly surpassed analysts' estimates. Cisco's networking business sales rose 21% year over year, accelerating from 15% growth in the first fiscal quarter, and the company raised guidance and its dividend. Investors might be focused on weaker gross margins related to rising memory costs.
     
  • AppLovin (APP) dropped more than 7% ahead of the open. The company beat analysts' earnings and revenue estimates while guiding for better-than-expected first quarter revenue, but software stocks got punished again yesterday and AppLovin appears caught in the storm. Two analysts lowered their price targets after the report, suggesting the company is struggling with competition from Meta Platforms (META).
     
  • Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) jumped nearly 3% before the open. Earnings results topped analysts' forecasts and the company maintained previous guidance. It said sporting events such as the Winter Olympics and soccer's World Cup have the firm positioned well for 2026, Reuters reported.
     
  • Micron (MU) powered 10% higher Wednesday after the company waved aside market concerns about competition, saying it's begun volume production and commercial shipments of its latest generation of high-bandwidth chips, Barron's reported. Micron added another 3% early Thursday while Sandisk (SNDK), Seagate (STX), and Western Digital (WDC) also climbed as AI continues to boost demand for data and memory.
     
  • Other chip and AI-related stocks also were on the rise early Thursday, suggesting some risk-on sentiment has returned. Shares of Texas Instruments (TXN), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), CoreWeave (CRWV), and Nvidia (NVDA) all rose 1% or more.
     
  • Shares of cloud computing company Fastly (FSLY) climbed 40% in early trading after earnings beat Wall Street's expectations and offered solid guidance.
     
  • Apple (AAPL) rose slightly Wednesday despite a Bloomberg report that the long-planned Siri upgrade ran into snags, potentially pushing back the release of some functions.
     
  • Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) have struggled this week and both fell again yesterday, with Microsoft caught up in general software market weakness and Amazon still hurt by last week's earnings miss. Amazon has fallen seven sessions in a row.
     
  • Bitcoin (/BTC) inched higher but remained well below $70,000 in what's been another disappointing week for bulls.

More insights from Schwab

How should Fed set rates? A possible checkpoint: The Taylor rule, put forward several decades ago, has long been used as a guide to where the Fed might want to set rates. It's still used today, but some say it's become a dated tool and doesn't take rapidly changing economic conditions into account.

How should Fed set rates? A possible checkpoint: The Taylor rule, put forward several decades ago, has long been used as a guide to where the Fed might want to set rates. It's still used today, but some say it's become a dated tool and doesn't take rapidly changing economic conditions into account.

Latest look at fixed income: The bond market has been remarkably calm despite all the global economic and political turbulence "While occasional bouts of volatility are likely, we expect the fixed income markets to remain a ballast for portfolios and it seems likely that they deliver solid returns in 2026," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at SCFR, and Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at SCFR, in their new analysis.

Washington in focus: Get the latest updates on what's happening in Washington with Schwab's WashingtonWise podcast, featuring Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab. In the newest update, Townsend discussed investor concerns with Daniel Stein, manager of two Schwab branches in Virginia, and offered a look at the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chairman.

Dating? Here are some money tips: Schwab's latest financial planning article addressed the expenses of dating and how to handle them, including five ideas help you stay sociable but also be smart about your money.

Chart of the day

The U.S. dollar index fell below 97 this week and trades just above recent lows, well below its 98.2 50-day moving average. Its relative strength index, or RSI, is sluggish below 42.

Data source: ICE. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

For illustrative purposes only.

The dollar index ($DXY—candlesticks) edged up Wednesday after the jobs report, but remains near recent lows and below its 50-day moving average (blue line). Earlier this week, it felt pressure from currencies in Japan and China. Tuesday's poor U.S. retail sales report didn't help, and the greenback remains weighed down by concerns that foreign countries might ease purchases of U.S. assets. Trading momentum, tracked by the Relative Strength Index (RSI—bottom chart), is weak at just below 42, with oversold conditions seen as 30 or less. The dollar softness is helping international stocks, which continue to outpace U.S. equities year-to-date.

The week ahead

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

February 13: January CPI and January core CPI, and expected earnings from Enbridge (ENB) and Moderna (MRNA).
February 16: U.S. markets closed for President's Day.
February 17: Expected earnings from Medtronic (MDT), Constellation Energy (CEG), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW).
February 18: January housing starts and building permits, January industrial production, FOMC meeting minutes, and expected earnings from Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Carvana (CVNA), DoorDash (DASH), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and eBay (EBAY).
February 19: January pending home sales and expected earnings from Walmart (WMT), Alibaba (BABA), Deere (DE), Southern (SO), and Newmont (NEM).

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