Stocks Open Flat to End Best Quarter in Years

Published as of: June 30, 2026, 9:13 a.m. ET

(Tuesday market open) Stocks were set to open little-changed Tuesday, the final day of what will likely turn out to be the best quarter for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in six years, despite the Iran war. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is set for its best quarter since 2022. 

Investors will lace up for Nike's (NKE) earnings this afternoon. But first, the focus will be jobs data, as it will be all week, with implications for the Federal Reserve's policy stance. Soon after today's open comes the May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). It's expected to show a slight drop to 7.3 million openings, but the labor market has shown signs of strength recently. Job openings hit a nearly two-year high in April and the ratio of openings to the number of unemployed is back above 1, said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "Any additional strength in the labor market can help keep the Fed’s hawkish bias going," Martin said.

Major indexes snapped back Monday, led by the tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite and its 2% gain. Chips powered higher and the Magnificent Seven posted solid gains, particularly Alphabet (GOOGL) on its first day as a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

1. Choppy trading possible: It's a holiday-shortened week, which means heightened volatility could be a factor as volume thins before the long weekend. Anyone trading on Thursday might want to consider taking extra care, especially with markets liable to be choppy anyway following that morning's June nonfarm payrolls data. Today could also bring volatile trading—it's the last day of the quarter, which means "window dressing," when major funds often shift positions, shedding losers and adding winners before sending out quarterly reports to investors. With many Magnificent Seven stocks lagging the market over the last month, this could mean additional index pressure.
    
2. Breadth check: In this shortened week, traders could be looking at several metrics to figure out where markets are headed. Breadth is certainly one worth checking out, as it showed multiple signs of improvement over the course of June. As of Monday, 64% of S&P 500 stocks traded above their 50-day moving average, up from just 50% a month ago. That's interesting because the S&P 500 Index is heading for a monthly loss in June, weighed down by recent weakness in the mega-cap Magnificent Seven names. Breadth shows that under the surface, though, things are shaping up more constructively. The market may be less dependent on a handful of chip and other tech stocks for further gains.
    
3. Quarterly shift change: It's arguably been a tale of two quarters, with a firm line between June and the first two months of the quarter. The potential wind down of the Iran war this month appeared to be one factor clipping the technology rally, with falling oil prices helping relieve pressure on more cyclical sectors like industrials and financials on hopes for improved economic growth. Before that, higher crude and yields kept most sectors in check, with investors congregating in the tech sector where such metrics tend to have less immediate impact. Tech got challenged by many other factors in June, including highly publicized flows of talented personnel from the Magnificent Seven into the chip stocks, worries about margin for big data center providers as memory chip prices climbed, and concerns that the tech sector had too much leverage in the stock market that might make it vulnerable to selling. Barring a return to full-scale hostilities in the Middle East, earnings season is likely the next major catalyst.

• The Japanese yen hit a 40-year low against the U.S. dollar, around 162.45 yen to the dollar, raising concerns about more aggressive intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance.
   
• Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) fell 5% ahead of the opening bell, giving up some of the 13% it gained Monday after the company formally abandoned its "never sell" stance. Bitcoin fell more than 1% early, holding just above its recent bear market low.
   
• Digital Realty Trust (DLR) fell more than 4% before the open after it agreed to buy a stake in three data centers from Blackstone for $3.5 billion.
   
• Nike rose less than 1% in early trade as it prepares to report earnings after today's close. Shares are down about 24% this quarter, and analysts expect annual revenue to fall about 2.1% for the fiscal fourth quarter. Earnings per share are seen down 5.7% from a year ago. Consensus for earnings per share is $0.13.
   
• Constellation Brands (STZ) rebounded less than 1% early after falling more than 4% on Monday. It reports earnings after the close. Analysts expect quarterly revenue to fall 10.5% from a year ago. The consensus estimate for first quarter earnings per share is $3.21.
   
• Shares of Alphabet rose 4.8% Monday on its first day of inclusion in the Dow but are down about 8% over the last month amid worries about talent leaving the company for chip firms and Alphabet's recent equity offering.
   
• Drone maker AeroVironment (AVAV) gained more than 30% in early trading after a blockbuster earnings report on Monday. CEO Wahid Nawabi told CNBC that the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran had changed the fundamentals of war.
   
• Shares in Merck (MRK) and AbbVie (ABBV) both fell less than 1% before the open after Reuters reported that a House committee had begun investigating whether they participated in trials in China that helped Beijing's military capabilities.
   
• Verizon (VZ) fell 5.2% Monday after losing its place in the DJIA to Alphabet. However, since not many funds track the DJIA, Verizon may not lose much fund inclusion.
   
• Micron (MU) rose 1% Monday, clawing back from earlier losses after pledges by South Korean competitors in the memory space to make large new investments, Barron's reported. SK Hynix and Samsung plan to spend more than $500 billion to construct new capacity in South Korea. Micron rose less than 1% before the open.
   
• The South Korean spending appeared to aid shares of chip infrastructure firms including Applied Materials (AMAT), Corning (GLW), and Lam Research (LRCX), all of which rose sharply Monday.
   
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fell 8% Monday after Bloomberg reported that the company's Taiwan office was raided, part of a probe related to the smuggling of chips into China. This is a new development in a probe that's been previously reported, but might mark an expansion, Bloomberg said.

Short interest update: The new Schwab Short Interest Monitor is packed with technology names, as half of the companies on the list operate in some part of the AI space. They include CoreWeave (CRWV), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), and Nebius Group (NBIS).

Gold (/GC—candlesticks) earlier this year was far outpacing the S&P 500 Index (SPX—purple line). Since then, gold has relinquished almost all of its premium, now up roughly 22% from a year ago versus 21.6% for the S&P 500. The memory chip-led stock market rally in May and June, a rising dollar on ideas the Fed might hike rates, and relatively solid U.S. data all played into the drop in gold, as did the recent ceasefire that reduced volatility somewhat.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

July 1: ADP June employment change, June construction spending, June ISM Manufacturing PMI^®, and expected earnings from General Mills (GIS).
July 2: June nonfarm payrolls, June unemployment, June hourly earnings, and June factory orders.
July 3: U.S. markets closed for Independence Day.
July 6: ISM June Services PMI^®.
July 7: No major earnings or data expected.